Poll Analysis: Only Chris Bell Can Beat Rick Perry

Poll Analysis: Only Chris Bell Can Beat Rick Perry

"There is only one viable path to beating … Perry: Chris Bell"

As Democrat Chris Bell kicks off his "Two Sleeves Tour" in South Texas today, his campaign released the results of an opinion poll showing that Chris Bell is in second place overall and tied among likely voters who have seen his television ad. Overall, Rick Perry has fallen to 38%, Chris Bell is up to 18% (with only 46% name ID), Carole Strayhorn is down to 16% (despite 79% name ID), Kinky Friedman is at 11% (with 73% name ID), and Libertarian James Werner gets 1%, with 16% undecided.

"There is only one viable path to beating the hugely vulnerable Rick Perry: Chris Bell," wrote the pollster, Alan Secrest. "Neither Friedman nor Strayhorn has a chance."

The poll also charted an implosion by the Strayhorn campaign:

"Carole Strayhorn has seen her vote share drop in nearly every geography and demographic, including her vaunted ‘Grandma' demographic," wrote Secrest. "In Austin she has plummeted to 4th place, and she even trails Perry among Anglo liberals."

Secrest identified Discouraged Texas Democrats as the key demographic in pulling off an upset:

"Texas Democrats owe it to themselves to shake off the doldrums and get back in the game. The polling suggests that the only thing preventing Democrats from grabbing this opportunity is that the donor community has its own populations of Discouraged Democrats. We can win!" concluded Secrest.

Cooper & Secrest, a nationally respected Democratic polling firm based in Virginia, conducted the survey of 1,010 likely Texas general election voters Jul. 31 through Aug. 6. The margin of error is +/- 3.1%. Secrest's clients have included Oklahoma Gov. Brad Henry and Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, among scores of others.

You can read Alan Secrest's poll advisory at: http://www.chrisbell.com/releases/081506_polling_advisory.

http://www.chrisbell.com/releases/081406_secrest?t=7